Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Abstract Specific components of the Earth system may abruptly change their state in response to gradual changes forcing. This possibility has attracted great scientific interest recent years, and been recognized as one greatest threats associated with anthropogenic climate change. Examples such components, called tipping elements, include Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, polar ice sheets, Amazon rainforest, well tropical monsoon systems. The mathematical language describe abrupt climatic transitions is mainly based on theory nonlinear dynamical systems and, particular, bifurcations. Applications this nonautonomous stochastically forced are a very active field research. empirical evidence that have indeed occurred past stems exclusively from paleoclimate proxy records. In review, we explain basic needed critical transitions, summarize for different parts system, examine some candidates future ongoing Predicting remains difficult subject large uncertainties. Substantial improvements our understanding mechanisms underlying needed. We argue an improved requires combining insights (a) paleoclimatic records; (b) simulations using hierarchy models, conceptual comprehensive ones; (c) time series analysis observation-based data encode dynamics present-day potentially prone tipping.